Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 21.613227 22.806121 24.059450 25.479576 27.050370 28.742043 30.711611
2026-01-11 20.103721 21.774182 23.612186 25.803156 28.369044 31.311602 34.990843
2026-01-18 19.032684 20.945566 23.111532 25.779004 29.024288 32.912342 38.034123
2026-01-25 18.016134 20.065126 22.436154 25.430911 29.186628 33.850760 40.274566
2026-02-01 17.162342 19.297318 21.811421 25.053387 29.223811 34.565367 42.218966
2026-02-08 16.399626 18.584244 21.194177 24.618640 29.120360 35.043567 43.837287
2026-02-15 15.862472 18.110374 20.833490 24.467537 29.348697 35.948803 46.116827
2026-02-22 15.625425 17.988021 20.894771 24.848972 30.293377 37.895405 50.145495
2026-03-01 15.143608 17.532992 20.504420 24.601345 30.342782 38.549261 52.226998
2026-03-08 14.524788 16.878982 19.827243 23.928408 29.743809 38.188479 52.595015
2026-03-15 14.112179 16.473012 19.454791 23.647680 29.679989 38.614346 54.315633
2026-03-22 14.002502 16.450776 19.581273 24.053559 30.627843 40.660082 59.124497
2026-03-29 13.784241 16.289935 19.530211 24.227883 31.275068 42.342916 63.674328
2026-04-05 13.601869 16.169338 19.527404 24.469215 32.039755 44.296522 69.142508
2026-04-12 13.345986 15.939459 19.362377 24.460705 32.406038 45.600007 73.538427
2026-04-19 12.999415 15.576097 18.998419 24.139291 32.249239 45.965856 75.969208
2026-04-26 12.665368 15.219567 18.631115 23.794777 32.030666 46.195395 78.132706
2026-05-03 12.331677 14.854338 18.239670 23.396532 31.698794 46.184775 79.728334
2026-05-10 12.099441 14.621151 18.026424 23.258125 31.787429 46.964367 83.438591
2026-05-17 12.033227 14.612985 18.130588 23.607512 32.716118 49.445002 92.229592
2026-05-24 11.793586 14.357918 17.871833 23.380724 32.637846 49.926800 95.679534
2026-05-31 11.446159 13.945452 17.375350 22.763692 31.846748 48.897823 94.502961
2026-06-07 11.220194 13.697995 17.112129 22.505975 31.676496 49.135674 97.234375